Is making the new “Mulan” movie $30 on Disney Plus a smart move by Disney?

As of now, its an interesting gamble. To better analyze this, lets us look at the pros and cons of 4 possible release strategies:

1. Theatrical release at a later date (e.g. Black Widow)
2. Theatrical release now (e.g. The New Mutants)
3. Direct-to-Disney+ release without premium payment (e.g. Hamilton)
4. Direct-to-Disney+ release with premium payment

Option 1: Theatrical release at a later date

Pros

• Theatres will be happy to have a strong future pipeline of films
• Potentially larger theatrical revenues in the “new normal” that may help recover large production budget

Cons

• Wasted marketing budget (e.g. Superbowl Ad)
• Will require a new, major marketing campaign and larger additional budget
• Other movies will have to be pushed to even later dates
• Delay of much needed revenues possibly resulting in more interest expenses

Option 2: Theatrical Release now

Pros

• Much needed revenue now
• Smaller additional budget for marketing
• Future movies need not be pushed to later dates
• Theaters will be happy

Cons

• Government restrictions (e.g. closures, limited theatre capacity) limit theatrical potential
• Families with kids would be hesitant to go to theaters
• Lower revenues may prevent recovery of large production budget

Option 3: Direct-to-Disney+ release without premium payment

Pros

• Some additional revenue from new subscribers
• Smaller additional budget for marketing
• Future movies need not be pushed to later dates

Cons

• Lower revenues may prevent recovery of large production budget
• Theaters will be angry

Option 4: Direct-to-Disney+ release with premium payment

Pros

• Some additional revenue from new subscribers
• Potential for large revenue if subscribers avail of new premiereoffer. (i.e. if 1/3 of the 60M subscribes pay US$30 each, then the movie would gross US$ 600M)
• Smaller additional budget for marketing
• Future movies need not be pushed to later dates
• Potential for new business model for future content
• Better profit margins than a theatrical release.>/ul>>p>Cons>ul>>li>baixas receitas podem impedir a recuperação de grandes orçamentos de produção>li>li>As salas de cinema ficarão zangadas>li>Subscritores podem ficar zangados

>p> Acho que é importante notar que ouvi dizer que a Disney está a fazer a opção 2, 3 & 4. Se a Disney+ não tiver sido lançada naquele país (ou seja, que é a maioria dos países), eles farão um lançamento teatral imediato. Para alguns países com um baixo número de assinantes da Disney+ (por exemplo, França), eles oferecerão o filme gratuitamente com uma assinatura da Disney+. Infelizmente para os países com um grande número de assinantes da Disney+ (por exemplo, EUA), a Mulan só estará imediatamente disponível com um pagamento premium.

Neste caso, penso que o verdadeiro benefício de uma estratégia de lançamento tão variada são os dados, que a empresa pode usar para planear os seus movimentos futuros em meio à pandemia.